• INDSCI-SIM is the first detailed, state-specific, epidemiological compartmental model for COVID-19 in India.
  • With INDSCI-SIM, we can compare the effects of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions – including different types of lockdowns, quarantining and expanded testing – in altering the trajectory of the pandemic. The model predicts the number of cases of mild, severe and critical illness within each intervention scenario. It can thus be used to forecast health-care requirements.
  • Single limited-duration lockdowns, cyclic lockdowns and quarantining symptomatic cases all help slow the pace of the epidemic. However, strategies that involve large-scale testing are the only truly effective ones in the long term.
  • An asynchronous periodic lockdown (i.e. daily staggered workforce) is even more effective than a periodic synchronous lockdown, if combined with continued physical distancing at workplace and lockdown days, and large-scale testing, tracing & quarantining
  • We obtain optimal fits to the nationally reported data on cumulative fatalities, thereby estimating the impact of the lockdown. Our results also suggest that most infections have remained undetected.
  • An online tool, presented together with a sampler of important model results, can be used to explore different intervention scenarios.


  • To develop an India-specific state-level model to predict spread of COVID-19 using state-of-the-art epidemiological models
  • Calibrate model to clinical parameters, so that these can be used as benchmark numbers for modeling
  • Incorporate state-specific demographic data
  • Model different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) strategies in each state
  • Codes and online tool will be made available soon
  • Flexible enough for easy update and changes transparently communicated.

For citation:

AUTHOR = {Snehal Shekatkar, Bhalchandra Pujari, Mihir Arjunwadkar, Dhiraj Kumar Hazra, Pinaki Chaudhuri, Sitabhra Sinha, Gautam I Menon, Anupama Sharma, Vishwesha Guttal},
TITLE = {INDSCI-SIM A state-level epidemiological model for India},
YEAR = {2020},
NOTE = {Ongoing Study at \url{}}